A Good Chance

"Fruit fly serenade" This is a headline that passes for clickbait on Science Daily.

Among headlines that included:

Self-Correcting Quantum Computers Within Reach?

AI Language Models to Diagnose Schizophrenia?

Largest Ever Solar Storm: Ancient Tree Rings

And Then There Were 6 -- Kinds of Taste, That Is

I clicked on "fruit fly serenade" first. What activated me was the dissonance. A lot of research is done on fruit flies because their brains are tiny and their resulting behaviors are simple. Serenade? Fruit flies?

Clicking on the link led me to what I love about science: It's all about uncertainty.

I love science and scientists because my work is all about uncertainty. The first sentence of the research summary landed a big reward for my click

The top line? An extremely supportive atmosphere for new ideas led to a big question to explore.

Like you, I'm confronted with headlines every day that begin, "Science says." followed by some overconfident statement of a presumptive fact. By contrast, the scientists studying fruit fly behavior say things like;

-- researchers hope to develop

-- we joined forces and methodologies to figure out

-- trying to determine

-- song complexity may be desirable

-- there's a good chance

Science is never about certainty because there is no certainty. The most we have is a best guess.

The paradox of the human condition is we seek comfort, but are built to process uncertainty. In The Scientist In the Crib "the authors find parallels between babies and scientists: both, they say, formulate theories, make and test predictions, seek explanations, do experiments, and revise what they know based on new evidence."

And more comprehensively is Surfing Uncertainty. “We are not cognitive couch potatoes idly awaiting the next ‘input’, so much as proactive predictavores – nature’s own guessing machines forever trying to stay one step ahead by surfing the incoming waves of sensory stimulation”.

At the same time, uncertainty is cognitively taxing -- as is dissonance. Certainty and consistency are calming.

Uncertainty and dissonance can promote curiosity and the ability to hold opposites (fruit flies? serenade? More in a moment.)

And uncertainty and dissonance can promote fear and agitation leading us to messages of certainty and consistency. Hence, Science Says.

Science suggests though, that there is the need to manage uncertainty and dissonance even for the tiny-brained fruit fly. Fruit flies express a complex series of songs while observing what in the song series is drawing a potential mate closer. There's not a one-song-attracts-all. The fruit fly experiments with what tunes will offer a better chance.

I'm pretty sure I'd have a bigger platform if I promised more certainty. "Science says this song will make you more attractive to others." However, my job is to help people make better predictions. We use a number of tools to get better at watching our own predictive minds at work. The goal is to get to Kairos, where our predictions lead us to our optimum thing at the optimum time.

Or, at least, give us a better chance of getting there.

  Warmly,

Francis Sopper


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