3 Years from Now: Will You Be Better Than Today?

"You'd be surprised how far you can get in three years."

There's a Youtube swim-coaching channel, Effortless Swimming. I find it supports my metacognition as I work on my mind-body integration in the pool. Its host is Brenton Ford, a top-level swimmer himself, and an artful teacher and coach. What distinguishes Ford's coaching for me, is his thinking about how we think in the water. He has specific tips and techniques like any trainer, but the elevated value he creates comes from his observation and study of the complex flow of information that occurs as our minds and bodies communicate.

I got a what?!?! moment in a recent video offering "cheat codes" for adult swimmers when one of his simple tips for success was to practice at least three times a week for three years. Do that, and easy peasy, you'll be amazed at what you will be able to do three years from now.

He's right. I say two years, but I admire Ford's time horizon. The video's title begins, "Everything I've learned in 25 years."

This post begins a series exploring a multi-year path to high-level skill development. Along the way, I'm going to check in with Ford's video as he models a metacognitive approach.

The series will focus on time, consistency, correct practice, finding your attention spans, metacognition, reaching Kairos.

Time

Ford reveals his work to engage open-water swimming. He was a national swimming champion for Australia, but that was pool swimming. Open-water swimming leverages many of the same skills, the context is still one's body and the water, but the dynamic context of what's known as wild swimming required a new set of skills. Ford says it took him years to match his performance in open water to his performance in the pool.

Years

When I was hired to teach third grade for the first time, Peter, the school head, told me he expected a minimum commitment of three years. "In the beginning, we'll be investing in you. After three years, you'll return that investment." I'm not sure why they renewed my contract after the first year. I look back, and think it took me until year five. In my career, every change has taken a year for me to feel more than inept. Two more years has been about right to feel comfortably competent.

A doctorate almost always takes a minimum of three years. Durable compliance with a weight loss program, smoking cessation, drug and alcohol addiction, requires a minimum of two years.

There's no doubt we get wins along the way. We acquire some skills right away. Other skills follow. Nonetheless, nearly everyone experiences plateaus where it appears forward movement has stopped. Often that's the result of hitting a tangle. For forward movement now, several intersecting skills have to develop first separately, then together, before noticeable movement restarts. After that, all the skills that were easy to learn and automatize are in place. The ones that take us to top performance are the hardest and most nuanced, which is why they take more time.

Not to be underestimated is the multi-year path to excellence encounters life's storms and setbacks. We often find the need to pause our learning and practice. Turning to Ford again, he observes that for every one week break we take, we require two weeks to bring our skills back to where they were when we paused.

What causes nearly everyone to fall short of excellence are the tangles, storms, and setbacks. Excellence requires starting over, again and again.

In 1993, K. Anders Ericsson, Ralf Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Römerd conducted breakthrough research that revealed, "Many characteristics once believed to reflect innate talent are actually the result of intense practice extended for a minimum of ten years."

Ten years!

The good news: you don't have to be born a genius, rich, or with an extraordinary physique. You just have to go at something for ten years with consistency, correct practice, and metacognition. And you'll be surprised at what you can do after just three years.

Easy peasy.

Next up: Consistency

Warm regards,

Francis Sopper

REFERENCED IN THIS LETTER:

Effortless Swimming: https://effortlessswimming.com/

Video: https://youtu.be/DoZHudAH2Q4?si=64sC1gSSwJgI7PDU

K. Anders Ericsson, Ralf Krampe, and Clemens Tesch-Römerd: https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0033-295X.100.3.363


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